Same Match, Four Prices: Toto, Unibet, Polymarket and Overtime Compared
Who pays the most? We compared the last prices before kickoff at four venues over 473 matches. Polymarket had the best 1X2 price 61% of the time, Toto 6%.
Last reviewed November 3, 2026
Key takeaways
- >Polymarket had the best 1X2 price on 61% of selections, Unibet 28%, Overtime 8%, Toto 6% (473 matches)
- >Toto's price was on average 5.8% below the best available one
- >On over/under 2.5, Overtime was best 61% of the time
- >Toto vs Unibet: Unibet paid more on 68% of 1X2 selections; on over/under 2.5 Toto was slightly ahead (49% vs 43%)
- >Compare at least two venues before every bet: the gap is bigger than most bettors' edge
Bookmakers do not agree on prices. The same bet on the same match pays differently depending on where you place it, and the differences are not random: some venues are consistently more generous than others. We compared the last prices before kickoff at four venues over hundreds of matches. Here is who paid the most, and how much it matters.
The four venues
- Toto: the Dutch sportsbook of Nederlandse Loterij.
- Unibet: an international sportsbook; its Dutch odds come from the Kambi platform (what Kambi is).
- Polymarket: a prediction market. There is no bookmaker: users buy and sell shares in outcomes, and the share price is the odds (how that works).
- Overtime: an on-chain sportsbook, where bets are placed and settled from a crypto wallet.
Who had the best price
For every match where all four venues priced the 1X2 market (home, draw, away) before kickoff, we checked which venue offered the highest odds for each outcome. 473 matches, 1,419 selections:
Venue | Best price (incl. ties) | On average, below the best price by |
|---|---|---|
Polymarket | 61.3% | 1.7% |
Unibet | 27.5% | 2.7% |
Overtime | 8.2% | 4.1% |
Toto | 5.8% | 5.8% |
Polymarket had the best price on six selections out of ten, Toto on barely one in twenty. On average, Toto's price was 5.8% below the best one available. On €10 at odds of 2.00 at the best venue, that is the difference between €10 profit and about €8.84.
The picture depends on the kind of bet:
Venue (1X2, best price) | Favourite | Draw | Outsider |
|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket | 76% | 51% | 56% |
Unibet | 13% | 33% | 36% |
Overtime | 5% | 12% | 8% |
Toto | 8% | 8% | 2% |
Polymarket was strongest on favourites; Unibet was competitive on draws and outsiders.
Over/under 2.5 goals
Polymarket's football totals are not in our data, so for over/under 2.5 we compared three venues (456 matches, 912 selections):
Venue | Best price (incl. ties) | On average, below the best by |
|---|---|---|
Overtime | 60.6% | 0.9% |
Unibet | 26.5% | 2.6% |
Toto | 16.1% | 2.5% |
On goals, Overtime was the most generous, by a distance.
Toto against Unibet
The two Dutch sportsbooks compared directly, selection by selection:
Market | Unibet higher | Toto higher | Equal |
|---|---|---|---|
1X2 (1,872 selections) | 68% | 22% | 10% |
Over/under 2.5 (1,248) | 43% | 49% | 8% |
On the result market Unibet paid more two times out of three. On over/under 2.5 the two were close, with Toto slightly ahead. Taking whichever of the two was higher cut the typical margin on 1X2 from 5.9% (Toto) or 3.1% (Unibet) to 2.7%.
Why prices differ
- Margin. Each venue charges a different fee inside its prices: around 2% at Polymarket, 3% at Unibet, 4% at Overtime and 6% at Toto on 1X2.
- Opinion. Venues also genuinely disagree about matches, and those disagreements are where one venue ends up clearly longer than the rest.
- Timing. Prices move. A venue that updated later or earlier than the others can look better or worse at the moment you compare.
What to watch out for
- Collection moments differ. We recorded prices once a day, so the four venues' "last price before kickoff" were not always taken at the same minute. That makes comparisons noisier, not biased toward one venue.
- A price is only good if you can get it. Polymarket's price is the best offer in its order book, which may only be available for a limited amount. Sportsbooks can limit accounts that keep taking the best prices.
- Availability. Not every venue is open to everyone; check what is legal and available where you live.
The takeaway
Where you bet matters as much as what you bet. Over a season, consistently taking a price a few percent below the best available costs more than most bettors' entire edge. If you bet regularly, compare at least two venues before every bet.
How we measured this: for every finished match in Edge Terminal's odds history, the last price recorded before kickoff at each venue, played August – early November 2026 across nine competitions (Eredivisie, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions, Europa and Conference League). Only matches priced at every compared venue count; implied totals below 98% or above 125% were excluded as broken data. Polymarket = 1 ÷ best ask. Snapshot taken 3 November 2026. Nothing here is a tip.