STRATEGIES

Captain Hindsight's backtests

What a simple rule would have returned, replayed on the prices that were actually on offer before kickoff. Every result comes with its sample size, its window and a verdict on whether it beats plain luck. Hindsight is easy; that's the joke, and the point.

7 Oct 2026
Eredivisie Over Goals: Our First Backtest, Shown in Full (Updated)
Backing every Eredivisie Over line priced 1.50–2.50 at Toto: +31% after six weeks, +18.5% after twelve, and almost nothing since mid-September. The full record, losses included.

Eredivisie Over Goals: Our First Backtest, Shown in Full (Updated)