Eredivisie Over Goals: Our First Backtest, Shown in Full (Updated)
Backing every Eredivisie Over line priced 1.50–2.50 at Toto: +31% after six weeks, +18.5% after twelve, and almost nothing since mid-September. The full record, losses included.
Published October 7, 2026
- >122 bets on 95 Eredivisie matches, 7 Aug – 31 Oct 2026, all priced: +€225.60, +18.5% ROI
- >First published at +31.2% after 71 bets; the 51 bets since 15 September made +€4.80
- >Eredivisie goals fell from 3.94 to 3.51 a match after 15 September; the rule bets on goals
- >Counted one bet per match: 95 bets, +22.5%, luck band ±20.9%
- >Just outside the luck band, but found by looking and flat since September: not proof of an edge
Updated 3 November 2026. We first published this backtest on 16 September, after 71 bets: +31.2%.We have re-run it on every Eredivisie match to 31 October. The full period is still in profit, butalmost all of it was made before 15 September: the 51 bets since then made +€4.80. The figures beloware the full re-run; the original window is shown next to it.
Captain Hindsight's first strategy is as simple as a betting rule gets: in the Eredivisie, back every Over line priced between 1.50 and 2.50 at Toto before kickoff, €10 flat. This is the full record, every losing bet included, and an honest account of what it does and does not show. Nothing here is a tip.
The rule
- League: Eredivisie
- Market: total goals, Over side, every line (Over 2.5, Over 3.5, Over 4.5, …)
- Price: between 1.50 and 2.50 at Toto, the last price before kickoff
- Stake: flat €10 per bet, no staking plan
- Several qualifying lines in one match: bet all of them (see "Counting honestly" below)
The result
Measure | 7 Aug – 15 Sep (first published) | 7 Aug – 31 Oct (full re-run) |
|---|---|---|
Matches | 53 (as published) | 95 (all priced) |
Bets | 71 | 122 |
Won / lost | 49 / 22 | 75 / 47 |
Hit rate | 69.0% | 61.5% |
Staked | €710 | €1,220 |
Profit | +€220.80 | +€225.60 |
ROI | +31.1% | +18.5% |
Longest losing streak | 5 | 5 |
Deepest drop from a peak | €72.30 (as published) | €98 |
(The first window showed +€221.60 when we published it; data corrections since, such as updated kickoff times, moved it by €0.80.)
And the part that matters most:
Measure | First 71 bets (7 Aug – 15 Sep) | Next 51 bets (15 Sep – 31 Oct) |
|---|---|---|
Bets | 71 | 51 |
Hit rate | 69.0% | 51.0% |
Profit | +€220.80 | +€4.80 |
ROI | +31.1% | +0.9% |
After a brilliant six weeks, the rule went flat. The most likely reason is simple: it bets on goals, and the league scored fewer. To 15 September Eredivisie matches averaged 3.94 goals; from 16 September, 3.51. The whole story, and why it is the most common trap in betting, is in The hot-start trap.
By line
Line | Bets | Average odds | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 2.5 | 24 | 1.58 | +€46.50 | +19.4% |
Over 3.5 | 90 | 2.02 | +€174.10 | +19.3% |
Over 4.5 | 7 | 2.18 | −€9.60 | −13.7% |
Over 5.5 | 1 | 2.46 | +€14.60 | one bet |
In practice this is an Over 3.5 strategy: three quarters of the bets and most of the profit. Over 4.5 and Over 5.5 qualified too rarely to say anything about.
Counting honestly: bets versus matches
When a match qualifies on two lines, say Over 2.5 and Over 3.5, the two bets usually win or lose together. Of the 27 matches with more than one bet, 23 settled every bet the same way. So "122 bets" overstates how many independent results there were. Counting one bet per match (the highest-priced qualifying line) gives the more conservative picture:
Measure | Every qualifying line | One bet per match |
|---|---|---|
Bets | 122 | 95 |
Profit | +€225.60 | +€213.70 |
ROI | +18.5% | +22.5% |
Luck band (±) | 17.5% | 20.9% |
Why that matters: Why Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 in one game aren't two bets.
Real, or luck?
On the full period, the ROI (+18.5%) sits just outside the luck band (±17.5%), and both halves of the bets were positive (+35.3% and +1.7%). By our own rules that earns a "worth a closer look". Three reasons it is still not proof:
- The second half is barely positive. +1.7% is break-even in practice.
- The rule was found by looking. We noticed it because it had started well, which is exactly what makes a start unreliable. See Overfitting: in a test of 168 simple rules, the best-looking ones lost the following month.
- One league, one bookmaker, one early season. A goal-rich start to a season is not a law of nature.
Where this could be wrong
- Prices: Toto's last price before kickoff as we recorded it, usually on the morning of the match. The price you could get at a different moment, or at another book, would differ.
- Execution: the backtest assumes every bet was accepted at that price, with no limits.
- Sample: 95 matches is still a small sample for a betting strategy.
What happens next
We keep following this rule in the backtester and will update this page as the season goes on, whichever way it goes. If you want to see how we decide whether any result is real, start with What is a backtest? and How many bets before a result means something?.
Source: Edge Terminal backtester, rule leagues=eredivisie&class=totals&outcomes=over&min=1.5&max=2.5&stake=10&per=all (and per=best for the one-bet-per-match figures), Toto prices before kickoff, re-run 3 November 2026 on all 95 Eredivisie matches played 7 August – 31 October 2026. Goals: Edge Terminal match results. This is a backtest of past results, not a prediction; nothing here is a tip.