What Is a Surebet? Real Arbitrage Bets From Our Data, and the Catches
Back every outcome at different venues and win whatever happens. We found 14 real surebets in 455 matches, worth 0.5–0.9%. Here is one worked out, and everything that can go wrong.
Last reviewed November 3, 2026
Key takeaways
- >A surebet exists when the best prices across venues add up to under 100%
- >Utrecht–Zwolle: Toto 1.68, Unibet 4.75 and 5.40 summed to 99.1%: €100 returned €100.92 whatever happened
- >14 of 455 matches had a surebet with all prices from the same collection run, worth 0.5–0.9%
- >Almost every leg came from Polymarket or Unibet
- >Moving prices, refused bets, depth, rule and currency differences make 'sure' the wrong word
A surebet (or arbitrage bet) is a set of bets on every outcome of a match, at different venues, whose prices are so far apart that you win whatever happens. They exist. We found real ones in our own data. They are also smaller, rarer and riskier than the word "sure" suggests.
How it works
At a single bookmaker, the implied probabilities of all outcomes add up to more than 100%: that is its margin. But if you take the best price for each outcome from different venues, the total can drop below 100%. Then you can stake on every outcome so that each one pays back the same amount, and that amount is more than you staked in total.
A real one
FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle, Eredivisie, 24 October 2026. In one of our collection runs the day before, the best prices were:
Outcome | Best price | Venue | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
Utrecht win | 1.68 | Toto | 59.5% |
Draw | 4.75 | Unibet | 21.1% |
Zwolle win | 5.40 | Unibet | 18.5% |
Total |
|
| 99.1% |
Below 100%. To lock it in with €100, stake each outcome in proportion to its implied probability:
Outcome | Stake | Pays if it happens |
|---|---|---|
Utrecht win at 1.68 | €60.07 | €100.92 |
Draw at 4.75 | €21.25 | €100.92 |
Zwolle win at 5.40 | €18.69 | €100.92 |
Whatever the result, €100 comes back as about €100.92: a profit of €0.92, or 0.9%. (The match ended 1-1.)
How often we found them
Across 455 finished matches priced at four venues (Toto, Unibet, Polymarket, Overtime) between August and October 2026:
- 47 matches looked like a surebet when we took each venue's last price before kickoff.
- But many of those combined prices recorded at different moments, which proves nothing. Only 14 matches were surebets with all three prices from the same collection run.
- Their profit ranged from 0.5% to 0.9%.
- Almost every leg came from Polymarket or Unibet; Toto supplied 3 of the 42 legs, Overtime 1.
So: about one match in thirty, for under 1%. And we collect once a day, so we only see surebets that happened to exist at that moment; short-lived ones (often the bigger ones) we miss entirely.
Why "sure" is the wrong word
In the Utrecht example the prices were recorded about a day before kickoff. Between seeing them and placing all three bets, a lot can go wrong:
- A price moves before you place the last leg. Then you are left with an ordinary bet, or a guaranteed small loss.
- A bet is refused, or the stake is cut. Sportsbooks limit accounts that bet like this (see Why bookmakers limit winning bettors).
- Depth. A Polymarket price is only good for the amount on offer at that price.
- Different rules. Venues can settle unusual cases (an abandoned match, a void) differently, so one leg can be voided while another stands.
- Different currencies. Polymarket trades in a dollar stablecoin; Toto and Unibet in euros. Exchange-rate moves can eat a 0.9% margin.
- Your money is tied up at several venues until the match is over, for less than 1%.
Who surebets are for
People with accounts at many venues, fast tools, and the patience to collect small margins many times, knowing their accounts will be limited. For most bettors, the useful lesson is the opposite one: the same price differences that create the rare surebet exist on every match, and simply taking the best price on the bet you wanted anyway is worth more over a season than chasing arbitrage. See Same match, four prices.
How we measured this: Edge Terminal's odds history, last 1X2 price recorded before kickoff at four venues, 455 finished matches (August – October 2026, nine competitions). A match counts as a surebet when the best price per outcome sums below 100%, and as a same-moment surebet when all three of those prices were recorded in the same collection run. Polymarket price = 1 ÷ best ask. Snapshot taken 3 November 2026. Nothing here is a tip, and no bet is risk-free.