Anytime Goalscorer Odds: How 41 Strikers Did Against Their Prices
We compared Unibet's anytime-scorer odds with what happened for 41 attackers. On average the market was about right; Harry Kane, priced at 73%, scored in 4 of 9.
Last reviewed November 3, 2026
Key takeaways
- >292 settled anytime-scorer bets on 41 players at Unibet's pre-kickoff prices, 27 Aug – 31 Oct 2026
- >Implied chance 46.2%, actual 48.6%, ROI +10.8%: inside the luck band (±14.5%), and on a hand-picked list
- >Harry Kane: priced at 73% on average (1.32–1.53), scored in 4 of 9, −40%
- >Mbappé priced at 66%, scored in 67%: an accurately priced star
- >Short prices on famous strikers leave the least room for error; minutes matter as much as form
"Anytime goalscorer" is one of the most popular bets in football: you win if the player scores at any point in the match. It feels simple, but the price hides a lot. We tracked 41 attacking players this season and compared what Unibet's anytime-scorer odds implied with what actually happened.
What the price says
The odds convert to a probability like any other: 1 ÷ odds. A striker at 1.50 is priced at a 67% chance to score; at 3.00, 33%. The book builds that price from how often the player scores, how many minutes he is expected to play, the opponent, and its own margin. Two details matter in practice:
- If the player does not play, the bet is usually void (stake returned). Check your book's rules; we treat it that way below.
- He only has to play to count. A substitute who comes on for ten minutes still has a valid bet, with a much smaller chance to score.
What we measured
For each of 41 players, every league match with a Unibet anytime-scorer price before kickoff, from 27 August to 31 October 2026, €10 flat on every one:
Measure | Result |
|---|---|
Club matches finished | 482 (player × match), 302 with a price before kickoff |
Settled bets | 292 (10 more were void: the player did not play) |
Average odds | 2.34 |
Implied chance (from the odds) | 46.2% |
Actually scored | 48.6% |
ROI | +10.8% |
Luck band | ±14.5% |
Over all 41 players, the players scored a little more often than the odds implied, and the bets were in profit. But +10.8% is inside the luck band for 292 bets: this is not evidence of an edge. And there is a bigger catch: these 41 players were chosen by us, largely because they were scoring. A list picked on form will tend to beat its prices for a while, so this sample flatters the bet.
Player by player: where the price was far off
Player | Bets | Priced at (implied) | Scored | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Niclas Füllkrug | 6 | 32% | 6 of 6 | +222% |
Erling Haaland | 9 | 62% | 8 of 9 | +47% |
Raphinha | 8 | 66% | 7 of 8 | +31% |
Kylian Mbappé | 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | about 0% |
Harry Kane | 9 | 73% | 4 of 9 | −40% |
Ismael Saibari | 8 | 47% | 1 of 8 | −74% |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 6 | 49% | 1 of 6 | −71% |
The most interesting line is Harry Kane. He was priced between 1.32 and 1.53, an average implied chance of 73%: the market treated him as close to certain to score. He scored in 4 of 9. At those odds, backing him every match lost 40%. Short prices on famous strikers leave very little room for an off spell.
Mbappé shows what an accurately priced star looks like: priced at 66%, scored in 67% of his matches, ROI zero.
Remember the samples: 6–9 bets per player is far too few to judge any individual price (see How many bets before a result means something?). Füllkrug scoring in all six is remarkable; it is not a system.
What this tells you about scorer markets
- The market is roughly right on average, even for a hand-picked, in-form list.
- The shortest prices are the riskiest value. A striker at 1.35 needs to score three times in four just for you to break even.
- Minutes matter as much as form. The price assumes a certain role; a rotation or an early substitution changes the real chance without changing the price you took.
- Many matches had no usable price: of 482 player × match combinations, 180 had no anytime-scorer price before kickoff in our data. Props are listed late and not for every match.
How we measured this: Edge Terminal, 41 tracked players matched to Unibet by player id; Unibet's last anytime-goalscorer price before kickoff (prices recorded only during play are excluded); settled from ESPN and SofaScore match stats; void when the player did not play; 27 August – 31 October 2026. Luck band: ±2 standard errors of the per-bet return. Snapshot taken 3 November 2026. Nothing here is a tip.